Analysis
15 Nov 18

Mobility model in hyper-dense cities

Mobility will not look the same in every city. The combination of various criteria, such as liveability, infrastructure, pollution, urbanisation,… results in different “mobility models”. A very distinct Asian city-type is the emerging, overcrowded and congested megapolis. Examples are Mumbai, Delhi, Jakarta, but to a certain extend also Kuala Lumpur, Metro Manila, Bangkok and Ho Chi Minh.

The Mumbai model

The characteristics of these cities are

  • Low average income, below US$ 20K per capita, but strong growth of GDP and growing middle class
  • High population density and a popular destination of urbanisation
  • Distinct vehicle park: low number of cars per capita, high number of bicycles and motorcycles
  • Public transport of poor quality and insufficient coverage

In this type of context, it is very unlikely that autonomous vehicles will play any role in future mobility. Roads are narrow, traffic is unpredictable and… labor is cheap. Why buy a US$ 100,000 autonomous car when a driver costs only a couple of US$ 100s…?

Electrification

Air quality is a concern in these cities, especially due to pollutants such as NOx and PM 2.5. Electrification will be, at least for the next decade, the only way out. As the electric infrastructure is most probably not sufficient, decentralised power generation (solar) and storage (batteries) are crucial, both for private people and mobility suppliers.

Shared mobility

There is no scenario in which private cars can solve the growing mobility need of Mumbai-model cities. Governments will need to incentivize ride sharing and high capacity vehicles over cars. It is to be expected that different “box sizes” will be required: small boxes (micro-mobility, 2 wheelers, 3 wheelers) all the way up to big boxes (minibus, bus). Pooling and sharing apps will connect people to the right “box”.

Low speed, low range vehicles

People will be moving a lot, but not necessarily do many kilometres on a daily basis. Cheap electric vehicles, that could never be popular with a range-anxious Western user, are actually a perfect fit for the Mumbai model.

No autonomous

With a growing population, many unschooled workers, low labor cost and a poor eco-social back-up, workforce is due to be ample and cheap. In addition, autonomous vehicles are not likely to be a good fit with the complex situations where 1000s of motorcycles, pedestrians and cars systematically disobey traffic rules.

Infrastructure improvements

Simple things such as designated lanes (actual white painted stripes on the road), dynamic traffic lights etc… will improve traffic flows and, in the best possible scenario even allow for low levels of vehicle autonomy.

Improved public transit

High-capacity and efficient transport networks are today lacking in most Mumbai-model cities, but things are slowly improving. Mumbai itself is investing in metro lines (with support from the Japanese), Metro Manila is building additional train lines, Jakarta is improving its public transport… Nevertheless, it seems that high-cost subways should be substituted, at least in the beginning, with cheaper rapid buses and above-ground light rail systems.

Privatization of public transit is also a solution that is not yet frequently explored, but will be more common in the future.

2030

In a bit over a decade, the total vehicle park of Mumbai type cities will have doubled, but almost half of these vehicles are expected to be electric. Public transit will handle about half of all trips versus only 20% for the private car. Business potential for vehicle sharing companies is huge, expected to grow 1500% by 2030.

Corporate transit is expected to use the same solutions as private transits, with perhaps a bit more leased electric cars. Still, leasing companies that only offer private car solutions, will most probably fail in Mumbai-type cities.

Authored by: Yves Helven