"Cooperation will be crucial for success in the autonomous vehicle market"
Cooperation will be a crucial success factor in the evolving autonomous vehicle market as cities launch test projects one after another, says Shwetha Surender, Director of New Mobility at Frost & Sullivan. Athe the Global Fleet Conference on 2 December, she explained how the automotive, fleet and mobility environment is moving towards a fully digital integrated ecosystem in the 2030s.
After the significant developments in the partly and highly automated vehicles, the Level 5 development stage of autonomous vehicles will present a significant shift from vehicle ownership to usership.
The shift from all traditional vehicles to smart vehicles and digital services will continue with Vaas (Vehicle as a Service), says Shwetha Surender. "This means that connectivity features will be available on demand. Vehicles won't be owned but offered as mobility services."
Surender emphasizes the strategic positioning of relevant players in the value chain as a critical factor for success.
What is the autonomous strategy of OEMs?
Surender says collaboration is critical to leverage the specialization of every stakeholder in the autonomous vehicle market to overcome complexity.
According to Surender, OEMs desire to enter the robotaxi market. The collaborations between OEMs and mobility providers in Level 3 are just the tip of the iceberg as Ford, Volvo, GM, BMW, and Tesla increase investment in Level 4 vehicles.
"Pandemic increased the adoption of the services and commercialization. The US is leading the last-mile logistics solution while stakeholders within the logistics segment are reevaluating their needs."
Testing beds are expanding worldwide
What we will see in 2022, according to Surrender, is increased testing areas in cities worldwide to evaluate feasibility and consumer acceptance of the technology.
"N. America is more swiftly adapting to the technology, while Europe still lacks the legal framework while catching up. Private companies are pushing the market in the US, while in Europe and APAC, the government and public sector," says Surender. Global collaborations are also increasing, as Chinese NIO will enter the Israeli market in 2022 with a robo taxi service.
What the future holds for autonomous technology?
In the long run, the market will grow gradually due to high set-up costs but significantly cut the costs. Company cars will be replaced by private or shared ownership of autonomous vehicles, and corporate mobility offerings will evolve as leasing companies adapt autonomous technologies.
However, insurance and fleet maintenance remain undetermined variables, says Surender. The uncertainty could hinder the uptake of autonomous corporate mobility services.
New models like car-sharing are estimated to reduce costs by about 30%. By 2030, 15 to 20% of new vehicle sales globally will be highly automated, representing Level 4 (highly automated) and Level 5 (fully automated) vehicles.
The autonomous vehicle evolution will augment clean energy, increase safety and reduce congestion. By 2030, the Smart City Market will also expand, and cooperation will be a key for success, concludes Shwetha Surender.
You can watch her presentation during the Global Fleet Conference here!
Image of Shwetha Surender, Director of New Mobility at Frost & Sullivan