7 out of 10 global fleets to offer car-sharing by 2020
Car-sharing is big. In the next few years, it is about to become huge. A survey conducted by Fleet Europe and Global Fleet suggests that by 2020, almost 73% of international fleets will offer car-sharing in some form or other – up from 30% today.
A recent report by McKinsey predicts that by 2030, one in ten new cars will be used for car-sharing, a figure that may increase to one in three by 2050.
So much for market penetration. How about the impact on market volume? Another study, by PwC this time, says car-sharing could reduce the total fleet in Europe from 280 million to 200 million cars.
Despite that smaller size, the roads could be even busier than today, as shared cars are used much more (58,000 km/y) than non-shared cars (13,230 km/y). Another counter-intuitive effect of increased car-sharing: more car sales.
Because of increased usage, shared cars have to be replaced sooner (after less than 4 years, on average) than non-shared cars (typically after just over 17 years). This could result in a jump in new-car registrations in Europe by a third, to 24 million in 2030.
But what about the appetite of the general public for car-sharing? According to the PwC study, attitudes vary widely: 54% of Germans categorically say Nein, while no less than 84% of Chinese are happy to try it.
As is often the case, mobility innovations will be tried and tested first by the corporate sector. Fleets have been experimenting with various innovative mobility modes. Will they pioneer the breakthrough of car-sharing?
To find that out, Fleet Europe and Global Fleet surveyed a selection of international fleet managers – to see whether and by how much car-sharing was on the agenda of international fleets.
As it turns out, no less than 30% of the international fleet managers surveyed said that their companies already offered one or more car-sharing initiatives. That's a solid share, and an indication that car-sharing is no longer a fringe solution.
However, with less than a third of companies with international fleets offering some form of car-sharing, at present it's still very much a minority option. But that is about to change: 10% of those surveyed said their company will start offering car-sharing to its employees in 2018.
The big breakthrough will come over the course of the next three years, when a total of 43% will start to offer car-sharing. That means that by 2030, no less than 73% of the international fleets surveyed will offer car-sharing in some form or other.
If these projections are borne out, the next few years will see a boom in car-sharing initiatives by international corporate fleets. Most likely, however, it will remain one of a range of mobility options, with the (individual) company car still firmly enthroned at the top of the mobility chain.
For the survey also shows that only a minority (29%) thinks car-sharing will be significant enough to reduce the size of their fleet by more than 10% by 2020. One-third think the impact will be less than 10%, with 38% thinking there will be no change at all.